Rivian raises 2026 outlook as R2 becomes its best seller

Rivian raises 2026 outlook as R2 becomes its best seller

3 min read•Oct 30, 2026•
James Okafor
James Okafor

Rivian raised its 2026 outlook as Q3 revenue rose 38% year over year and the R2 became its best-selling vehicle in its first full delivery quarter, first reported by Electrek. The automotive segment still posted an $80 million gross loss, as Rivian attributed about $120 million in added cost of revenue to the R2 ramp.

Rivian said R2 launch-edition reservation conversion stayed above expectations, added a second production shift in Normal, Illinois, and saw demo drives rise to more than 103,000 from 57,000 in Q2.

Rivian beat Bloomberg consensus on revenue, adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA. Analysts expected about $2.02 billion in revenue, an adjusted loss of $0.61 per share and an adjusted EBITDA loss of roughly $576 million; Rivian reported adjusted EPS of -$0.48 and adjusted EBITDA of -$435 million.

Deliveries reached a record 19,248, up 46% year over year and 58% from Q2; production also set a record at 19,751 vehicles.

Rivian raised its 2026 delivery range to 67,000 to 70,000 from 65,000 to 70,000 and improved adjusted EBITDA guidance by $100 million at the midpoint, to a loss of $1.85 billion to $1.75 billion. Capital expenditures are now projected at $1.40 billion to $1.50 billion, down $300 million at the midpoint; Rivian said the cut reflects timing of spend, not savings.

Automotive gross loss widened to $80 million from $36 million in Q2, with the segment’s margin at -5% versus -3%; a year earlier, its gross loss was $130 million. Rivian attributed about $120 million in added cost of revenue to the R2 ramp compared with more normalized production.

The quarter also included $81 million in regulatory credit revenue and an IEEPA tariff refund receivable. Excluding credits, automotive gross loss was about $161 million, or roughly $8,400 per vehicle delivered.

Rivian said automotive cost of goods sold per unit fell by more than $12,000 quarter over quarter, helped by a higher R2 mix and better fixed-cost leverage. Revenue per vehicle excluding credits fell to about $76,300 from $85,000 in Q2. The figures put lower unit costs alongside lower revenue per vehicle.

Software and services generated $605 million in revenue and $256 million in gross profit, a 42% margin, making it the only segment to contribute to Rivian’s consolidated gross profit. Volkswagen Group’s joint venture supplied $354 million, or 59%, of segment revenue; Rivian expects to recognize that revenue through about mid-2028.

Plug-in vehicles reach 32% of global registrations in September

Plug-in vehicles reached 32% of global registrations in September, first reported by Cleantechnica. Battery-electric vehicles accounted for 23% of registrations and set a record at 1.54 million, up 8% year over year, while plug-in hybrids fell 9%; year to date in 2026, BEVs were up 12% and PHEVs down 10%.

Global plug-in registrations rose 3% year over year to around 2.16 million in September, close to the all-time record of 2.17 million set last December.

Year to date, plug-in registrations were up 4% year over year: BEVs grew 12%, while PHEVs fell 10%. Their combined share for 2026 stood at 25%, with BEVs at 18% and PHEVs at 7%. The overall growth rate therefore hides a clear split between the two categories.

The Tesla Model Y led the model rankings with a record 165,000 registrations, up 17% year over year. Tesla Model 3 came second with 65,000, enough to move ahead of Geely Xingyuan and BYD Song despite a 4% annual decline.

BYD Song finished fourth at 54,519 registrations, up 19% and the fastest growth rate among the top five. An export push and the new-generation Ultra body helped lift the model.

At the make level, Tesla had a record 232,000 registrations, up 9% year over year. Toyota reached 61,332 for its fourth record in a row, finishing ahead of Volkswagen’s year-best 58,000 to become September’s best-selling legacy make.